The Five Types You’ll Meet On Island
金門調酒 / Kinmen Cocktails #2
Even with the current cross-strait buildup, Taiwan society continues to exist in a soap bubble, somewhat tone deaf to the island’s increasing strategic importance and Taiwan’s existence as a fulcrum in the global balancing act between Washington and Beijing. When visiting the island, one will certainly encounter a few broad groups of Taiwanese who hold the following opinions.
The Ethno-nationalist - I am proud of China. This group is mostly 40+ and relishes the idea of the PRC’s achievements as a majority ethnically Han nation. This age group witnessed the PRC’s rise to great power status (often at the expense of Taiwan) and seeks to identify with that rise as a project of the ethnic Han Chinese.
Instinctually distrustful of the US, they generally see any agreement with Washington as Taiwan getting “the bad side of the deal.” This group sees CCP leadership as scrappy and crafty.
The thinking of this group is extremely fuzzy. There is very little thought given to how the CCP would deal with Taiwan citizens during a crisis, a takeover of the country, or war. The concept of unification is always distant and hazy, defined under no clear terms. There doesn’t seem to be any recognition that the CCP is building military capability to dominate the island of Taiwan.
The Pugilist - There is a large and growing group of Taiwan citizens who are explicitly anti-CCP, especially in the under-40 crowd.
In the bars, nightclubs, and smoking pits of Taipei, when the inhabitants of the island are absorbed by revelry, it is easy to start a “fuck China” chant among a group of strangers sharing spirits and smokes. Plenty of dive bars furnish Xi Jinping urinal cakes for their bathrooms.
At the same time, this group is not excited about military service, especially in a country that conscripts all male citizens. While the fighting spirit exists, Taipei has yet to harness these sentiments and embed them into a consensus-based approach to action.
The GTFOer - I’m leaving. Many Taiwanese (especially in business circles) somehow believe that it will be easy to leave the island and that, in the event of hostilities, they will simply purchase a plane ticket to leave the country.
This group is primarily worried about an impending conflict and the costs such a war would entail. Oddly enough, members of this group do not appear to seriously consider any contingency plans for removing themselves from the theater of war once it becomes one.
The Defeatist - We can’t win. Some Taiwanese simply throw their hands up and announce that China is so big and Taiwan is so small that there is nothing to be done.
Impervious to the example of Ukraine and the fact that the CCP has been unable to effectively move against Taiwan for 75 years in the face of US deterrence, this group is strangely defeatist, with little to be done to convince them otherwise.
The Ostriches - This group believes a war over Taiwan will never happen. Content to trust in business as usual and blind faith in the status quo, conversations with this group are held in a mental straitjacket.
The cross-strait flareups of 1949, 1954, 1958, and 1995 are faded memories, with few on the island and even fewer in this group cognizant of their own history.
Increasingly, it is the ethno-nationalists (leaning blue / KMT) and pugilists (leaning green / DPP) who define the domestic political narrative of the island. These groups carry the heaviest weight, and their synthesis will determine Taiwan’s future approach.
Referring to last paragraph- How do these groups achieve synthesis?
I have lived in Kaohsiung for over 10 years and I have only met a few "pugilists", but with an average age of over 40, generally retired people who spend their time in public parks, and "ostriches", the vast majority of whom are young people who are much more concerned with their daily problems.