Better be Quick
金門調酒 - Kinmen Cocktails #9
Operation Southern Spear
As Washington continues its military buildup in the Caribbean, it is increasingly likely that the administration will take action. There are three main possible scenarios, ranked from most to least beneficial.
Compellence
Such a buildup should allow Trump maximum leverage in negotiations with Maduro. Goals for such talks should include significant changes in Venezuela’s internal political system, eliminating PRC business ties and influence, expanding opportunities for US businesses and trade in the petroleum, natural gas, agriculture, manufacturing, and mineral sectors, improving the Venezuelan economy for the median family, supporting the Central Bank of Venezuela, and Caracas’ relationship to OPEC.
If significant and lasting changes on these issues can be achieved with the US military buildup, this would be an excellent example of compellence - changing the existing behavior of an adversary through the threat of force.
Limited Strikes and/or a Short Sharp War
Less preferred but still potentially fruitful would be a limited military operation designed to achieve the above outcomes. Venezuela is nothing like Afghanistan, and US military forces should be able to dismantle the Venezuelan military and impose change on the existing system with minimal investment.
The template for a limited option would be the smaller-scale Operation Urgent Fury and Operation Just Cause.
Long-Term Occupation
What the Trump administration cannot afford is a bungled military operation leading to a long-term occupation of the country. The US military is the smallest it has been since before WWI, with a near record-low share of budgetary resources since 1939. Sourcing an occupation of Venezuela would become an all-consuming task for the US armed forces.
Factors
Time: Continuing a buildup of forces gives Beijing time to respond. If action is to be taken, it must be swift and effective. As it stands, the PRC could deliver advanced surface-to-air missile systems to Caracas or offer security guarantees if Washington does not move fast enough.
Strategic: A successful move against Venezuela would eliminate a major partner of the CCP in the Western Hemisphere and sideline Cuba. Consolidating the American position in the Americas would form a better foundation for US grand strategy in dealing with China and Russia (similar to the effects of FDR’s Good Neighbor Policy in the 1930s).
Diplomatic: Success would give Washington much more leverage in negotiations throughout South America, focused on increasing cooperation with Washington and shutting out Beijing.
Information: If Washington uses military means to secure gains in South America, expect Beijing to make hay. The CCP will attempt to justify the use of force in Asia on the grounds of successful US operations in the Western Hemisphere. The Trump administration had better be thinking about prudent arguments for the use of force, both against Caracas and in support of Taipei, even if only deployed in confidential channels.