While our current view on Washington’s Venezuela adventures is less than sanguine, there is a scenario where focusing on South America and Venezuela in the short term can rack up quick wins in the wider strategic contest between Washington and Beijing.
Continue to Build Momentum in Latin America: In February of this year, the Trump Administration executed a textbook case of coercion (specifically, compellence), through successfully threatening military action against Panama. Panama withdrew from China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and is reviewing Chinese influence in port and canal operations.
If Washington can change Venezuela’s behavior, the US will have strung together two victories and pulled these nations away from Beijing’s orbit. This sends a message across South America and the Caribbean that there are high costs to pay for doing business with the totalitarians in China, whether you are a US partner or adversary.
Sharpen the Spear: If a Venezuela military operation is tightly scoped like 1983 Grenada, 1989 Panama, or the 1991 Gulf War, the US military should be able to conduct rapid attacks with overmatch and pull back on a short timeline once sovereign political authority is reestablished in Caracas.
Such an operation would help to restore confidence in US military capability post-Afghan withdrawal. The three most important audiences are the American people and their faith in the armed services, American policy makers and their faith in the effectiveness of the military instrument, and Xi Jinping’s assessment of US capability.
Even a limited operation would be a testbed for validating new military equipment and doctrinal approaches. Gaps exposed during the 1983 Grenada invasion were key in spurring the passage of Goldwater-Nichols in 1986.
While it is more likely that an amphibious invasion is threatened as an element of coercion, there is a possibility that the Iwo Jima Amphibious Ready Group (ARG) / 22nd Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) conducts the first US amphibious operation since the very short 2003 Battle of Al-Faw at the opening of the Iraq campaign.
Of course, there would be other capabilities employed as well, such as naval fires, airstrikes, SOF, airborne, and air assault operations.
Beijing Loses Bigly: The CCP has made an outsize bet on Venezuela’s future. US sources pin Venezuela as the second-largest recipient of Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) money over the past two decades. Even the CCP itself admits that “China has poured about US$67 billion into Venezuela since 2007, far more investment than any other South American country…”
Losing a major socialist ally in South America would cause Beijing’s bets to go bust at a time when China’s domestic economy is hurting and multiple BRI projects are hemorrhaging cash. A successful Venezuela operation would likely cause other South American nations to curtail or end Chinese investments.
Conclusion
If scoped properly and executed prudently, a Venezuela option could help Washington gain the initiative in the new Cold War and impose costs on Beijing. If terribly botched, the US risks holding another nation-building bag for quite some time.