4 Reasons CCP & American Grand Strategies are Incompatible
A Slow Motion Car Wreck
Continental Outlook
As we have thoroughly discussed, China is not a traditionally maritime power. The foundations of the Chinese state's strength have always been rooted in its status as a continental power.
In the continentalist view, the more territory, the better. More territory means more people, land, security, and sovereignty. We can see the psychology of this viewpoint in the CCP’s approach to its near seas - to remarket them as blue national soil (蓝色国土) and construct artificial features in order to introduce a land element that the Chinese are more comfortable operating with.
Regardless of whether this view of sea space is recognized under international convention (it’s not), it directly clashes with the US as a maritime power.
Where the CCP views the near seas as territory to be controlled, the US views most maritime space as a commons to all nations under the auspices of US naval strength. Since 1945, Washington has generally managed its dominance in the maritime domain in a way that appeals to a broad swathe of nations, especially its many European and Asian allies.
While it is true that the CCP has massively benefited from free-riding off of Washington’s naval power, this doesn’t mean that the CCP has to like this fact. Beijing knows that if it chooses violence against its neighbors, it will be punished by American naval and economic tools.
When a continental power goes to sea, it aims to close and shut out others from spaces it will deem its own national territory.
Genocide & Ethnic Nationalism
The CCP had the advantage of observing the USSR’s complete breakdown from afar. The USSR was sewn from a patchwork of ethnicities that the Soviets promoted and attempted to integrate into the union.
In the end, these constituent elements were more than happy to break off from the USSR and declare independence based on local non-Russian identities. The CCP clearly sees this as a significant weakness and promotes a policy of genocide to wipe away competing identities and thoroughly sinicize all regions under CCP control.
The CCP believes it can only be powerful when the vast majority of PRC citizens buy into the Han ethnic project. This is an expensive and risky undertaking. The CCP must ruthlessly commit heinous crimes and continue to do so for generations. Pumping the brakes at all, as the USSR and other examples suggest, will lead the Chinese people to turn on the party.
This Chinese blood and soil nationalism will never sit well with Americans. It runs counter to American ideas about citizenship, freedom, rights, and the individual.
Change is Dangerous - Avoid Chaos
The rise and fall of dynasties give Chinese history a rhythm unlike that of any other civilization. There are repeated lessons. Change is risky. Warfare is costly. Political control is paramount. Chaos, natural or manmade, is the sorrow of the people.
Avoiding chaos and promoting stability, no matter how draconian, is the government's role. It is no wonder that China ended up with the CCP.
In contrast, Americans believe politics is only valid when it flows from the people. And when political power comes from the people, it is chaotic by nature. The raucous and lively political character of Ancient Athens, Republican Rome, and modern America is not only absent from the cultural tradition of China - the idea is anathema. This is why Taiwan’s robust democratic experiment is so surprising and threatening to Beijing.
It wasn’t Churchill that uttered “the best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter,” but it may have been a Chinese communist bureaucrat.
The Americans are much like the Athenians; a people constantly striving for the next big change. This restless pioneering energy is actively pruned out of mainland Chinese culture and stamped out through education (this doesn’t mean that the PRC doesn’t innovate in its own way). This is bound to lead to friction and a mismatched set of political aims.
Sinification, Harmony, and Hegemony
The CCP seeks to sinify its own citizens and those abroad, a project to cement Chinese culture as more important than the rest. Secondly, the CCP wants to impose what it calls harmony, meaning order, on the world. Third, as the CCP seeks to become the regional and global hegemon, the concept of hegemony differs between Mandarin and English.
Sinification is inherently a project of order and position. The Han race is first above all others. The CCP is first above all other parties. The Chinese state is first above all others in Asia.
These themes are promoted not only to the domestic audience, but to Chinese ethnicities living in the Philippines, Singapore, Australia, Canada, the US, etc. The CCP promotes the message that blood is more important than the citizenship of free people.
The sinification project includes cultural elements and tools of control like TikTok, which aggressively censors American audiences, steering them towards pro-CCP and anti-American content. It also includes tools to destroy others’ culture, like the CCP-backed fentanyl trade into the US.
Standing on a unified Chinese culture, the CCP seeks to impose harmony outward. This is a tangible hierarchy that the CCP is on a quest to forge. 和谐, translated as harmony in English, does not mean peaceful and quiet. Harmony in Mandarin implies order and position, like musical harmony.
The CCP seeks to impose harmony on the international order, with itself as the central note. As the Qing Dynasty analogy goes, the crane calls out, and its young fly to it in birth order.
Ultimately, sinification and harmony are supporting elements of the CCP’s central project: struggling for hegemony, or 争霸. Many CCP officials are obsessed with who shall become 霸. However, 霸 comes from the Warring States period, and denotes a state that becomes the most powerful by the exercise of violent, illegitimate force. It is closer to the English word tyrant, and can be translated that way.
CCP officials view the US’ 霸 status as illegitimate. This is one reason the CCP has a hard time conducting diplomacy. The US position is cemented by mutual consent with a diverse coalition of countries through official written treaties. To put it succinctly, the US is in Japan post-1952 because Japan wants it there, not because the US has forced the issue.
The communists in Beijing fail to understand this dynamic and believe that the US position is maintained by brute force alone. This informs the CCP’s own ideas about how it should gain power and operate in the international system.
Conclusion
The clash is inevitable. Whether it looks violent is currently in a fragile balance. Are the CCP’s aims limited or unlimited? How will US allies react to Chinese bellicosity? Does the PLA believe surprise strikes against US forces are necessary?
In the final analysis, it is the CCP that will make the decision and own the decision, regardless of what Washington does and regardless of what is rational.