Red Letters #9
The Red Letters series is an ongoing short form Q&A. You can find the previous edition here.
What would you tell an American isolationist to convince them to care about China?
American isolationism was attempted before WWI and failed. It was attempted before WWII and failed. It was attempted before the Cold War and died on the battlefields of Korea and with the commitment to West Germany. Isolationism is a triumph of belief over reality. America can only afford such fancy because of the temporary geographic isolation provided by the oceans. History has shown that time and time again, the US will inevitably be drawn into a European or Asian engagement. The question is whether Washington will be prepared or will it be kicked awake from an isolationist nap. The longer Americans sleep, the higher the cost in blood and treasure when reality comes knocking on the door.
Mobilization - who is getting called up (IRR + vets) and does the US reinstate the draft?
Mobilization is an interesting topic. Unlike Russia or Ukraine, both the US and China are highly likely to have effective mobilization capabilities. The US mobilization problem is easier because the US is not an aggressor country. Washington does not need to maintain “covert mobilization” or “attack on mobilization” capabilities (unlike China and Russia).
The US has a multi-layered diamond-shaped mobilization authorities stack. Some authorities are delegated down to combatant commanders, state governors, service secretaries, or the Secretary of Defense. Put all those aside as they are covered under “selective mobilization” authorities or other laws. Most of these authorities cover smaller numbers of troops for less time. Mobilization, as we commonly think of it, falls under the following laws:
Presidential Select Reserve Call Up: The President without Congress can activate up to 200,000 members of the A) drilling reserves, B) Individual Mobilization Augmentee (IMA), C) National Guard units ordered to federal service, and/or D) Individual Ready Reserve (IRR) for a particular military mission up to 1 year. In July 2023, President Biden initiated a Presidential Select Reserve Call Up in support of Operation Atlantic Resolve.
Partial Mobilization: The President can declare a national emergency without Congress. This activates up to 1 million A,B,C,D and/or E) Inactive National Guard (ING), which is like the National Guard’s IRR, for up to 2 years. In September of 2001, President Bush ordered a Partial mobilization to support a national emergency “by reason of certain terrorist attacks.”
Full Mobilization: Congress declares a national emergency/war A,B,C,D,E, and F) Retired Reserve - all personnel completing 20 active years or 20 Sat years can be calle dup for the duration of the war + 6 months. Reserve processes are followed as per doctrine and regulation. The last time the US entered Full Mobilization was under the orders of President Roosevelt in a number of orders passed in 1941 and 1942.
Keep in mind that the all-volunteer force has never undergone total mobilization so the American Volunteer Force’s effectiveness under total mobilization is still unknown. The Selective Service System (SSS) would certainly be updated and reinstated to pull new personnel into the military.
How should the US deal with the Kinmen & Matsu Islands?
There is already a precedent for US/PRC dealings with Taiwan’s islands just off the coast of the PRC mainland (Kinmen, Wuqiu, Matsu). When the PRC threatened these islands in the past, the US has threatened nuclear escalation and the PRC backed down.
While the US has made effective threats in the past, Washington has simultaneously refused to draw these islands into the previous Mutual Defense Treaty or the current Taiwan Relations Act. This is another tactic for Washington to retain maximum ambiguity and flexibility.
How should modern diplomats deal with the problem? If you believe the US should maintain strategic ambiguity, then do nothing. If you believe the US should move to strategic clarity, it would be effective to tie in some non-military response, since defending these islands would be difficult. Perhaps something like a political tripwire, stating that a PRC assault on these small islands would not necessarily cause the US to enter a war, but it would green light US support for Taiwan independence.
What casualties would you expect the USAF to take if the US comes to Taiwan’s defense?
USAF casualties would almost certainly be very high. The PLA fears the USAF and has built layers of offense and defense to inflict heavy attrition on USAF personnel and equipment. US fighter squadrons will likely take high casualties, as well as airbases in the Pacific. As a result, the USAF will have to be able to reconstitute airfield operations quickly, bulldoze the runways of wreckage and casualties, rapid repair where possible, and restart flight ops (all something that the PLAAF regularly trains to). Pilot casualties will be high, so the current multiyear pipeline for new pilots must be reduced to several months at most. PLAAF will likely take similar casualties, so it is likely a war of attrition to see who can break their opponent after the onset of hostilities.
What role would attack helicopters play in defense of Taiwan?
They would almost certainly have a very limited role. Blue rotary will likely be hiding behind the mountains and pop out in raids to destroy C2, ground based air defense (GBAD), or armored forces and retreat. Red rotary will almost certainly attempt to land troops across the strait and not get shot down by blue/green GBAD. It is likely that red rotary will suffer high attrition.
How does the Abrams stack up against the Type 99?
The Abrams is almost certainly superior to the Type 99 on strength of crew alone. There is an extra crewman in each Abrams (4 vs 3) and it is almost certain they have better training than PLAA tankers. That being said, this doesn’t mean the PLAA doesn’t have tricks up their sleeve. Upgraded Type 99A2 tanks will likely have an effective Active Protection System (APS), comms and data passed through encrypted laser, gun-launched anti-tank guided missiles (GLATGMs), and effective explosive reactive armor (ERA).
Additionally, the question isn’t who can best the other in a 1v1 fight, it is how many 70+ ton Abrams can you transport to the First Island Chain, and the answer is not many. The Type 99 is a sleeker 55 tons and doesn’t have to travel far from its place of manufacture. The answer is to preposition Abrams forward, base Armored units forward, or sell them to Taiwan.