#22 - A New Sun Rises

重新武装 - Chong2 Xin1 Wu3 Zhuang1 - Rearmament

Japan is rearming and has affirmed the US-Japan Alliance as a critical security cornerstone. Now that Tokyo has cast the die, in what areas should the US and Japan increase cooperation?

The People’s Republic of China

China is clearly the main threat at the root of Japan’s new strategy. Washington and Tokyo have multiple issues that need to be hashed out quickly. 

1 - Increase combined (different nations working together) joint (different services working together) logistics. The current core mission of US Forces Japan (USFJ) is logistics, but this project will require an expansion of scope. From both a military and political perspective, Tokyo and Washington must also determine how to execute the war-time resupply of Taiwan and/or South Korea. Unlike Ukraine, both Taiwan and South Korea lack land supply routes from allied/partnered countries. The end goal is an integrated military supply chain so that either Japanese or American logistics units can resupply Japanese, American, Korean, or Taiwanese combat units.

2 - Enhance integration across defense industrial bases (DIBs). US and Japanese munitions and missile factories must both be able to manufacture large volumes of product that both sides are able to shoot. Both sides must also analyze their military supply chains and friend-shore materials for all components. There must be an assured supply of strategic natural resources from allies and partners. Australia and Canada will be key in developing these resources, and Japan will likely be relying on these partners in the future.

3 - Develop modern littoral warfare doctrine. The US and Japan will be fighting alongside each other in the first island chain (FIC). Naval and amphibious doctrine is struggling to catch up with the deployment of modern technologies like missiles and drones (including unmanned ground, sea, and subsea platforms). The US and Japanese militaries must figure out how they will fight together before the first missiles fly.

Russia

1 - Determine a strategy and efficient operational approach to deter and if necessary defeat Russian Far East forces during conflict. Ideally, Japanese forces would be capable of containing Russia organically with no US support. The Japanese force structure dedicated to this task would be based mainly on the northernmost island of Hokkaido. 

This task is critical because it maintains Japan’s sea line of communication with the United States. The shortest distance between San Diego and Tokyo Bay is a northerly sea route that cuts just 200 miles away from both the Alaskan Aleutian Islands and perilously, the Russian Kuril Islands. In reality, US-Japanese shipping would likely rely on the Aleutian Islands for refueling, stop-over, maintenance, emergencies, and weather delays. Considering possible Russian threats, these ships would likely need to be convoyed by navy vessels past the Kuril Islands to reach Japan. This northern sea line of communication (N-SLOC) is the only option for keeping the Japanese economy alive during a protracted naval war with China.

How the US can Improve

1 - US presidents have unfortunately committed to generationally poor choices for ambassadors to Japan. The President must begin choosing highly qualified people that actually have diplomatic experience (which should be a minimum requirement). Recent picks (Caroline Kennedy and Rahm Emanuel) have been uninspiring. Neither have diplomatic experience nor a background in Japan.

2 - Across multiple presidents, the US has also done a terrible job of managing Asia Pacific trade relations. While US trade negotiators have recently preferred bilateral or trilateral trade deals, Washington and Tokyo should join forces to create a new Pacific trade regime that explicitly excludes China on human rights grounds. This trade group would give access to the massive US and Japanese economies, but only in exchange for promoting free markets, committing to a free and open IndoPacific, supporting the free transit of maritime commerce, respecting intellectual property, minimizing debt for infrastructure deals, denouncing slave labor, upholding national sovereignty, committing to respectable labor practices, and treating Taiwan with respect. 

The primary goal of such an Asia Pacific trade bloc would be promoting the economic growth of members. Secondary goals would be the construction of trade infrastructure, the exploration and development of new sources of natural resources, and the development of Pacific island countries across Melanesia, Micronesia, and Polynesia.

3 - Both sides must initiate a large infrastructure project to upgrade the N-SLOC. This is mostly a US responsibility, since this route traverses California, Oregon, Washington state, the Canadian province of British Columbia, and for the longest stretch, Alaska. This region will also require expanding and upgrading military infrastructure so that supplies and US-Canadian combat power can flow at maximum volume.

4 - Both sides must begin to invest in liquified natural gas (LNG) infrastructure, for the US to export and Japan to import. Tokyo is almost completely reliant on energy imports to fuel its industrial base and is one of the largest purchasers of LNG in the world. If war were to break out in Asia, even if it did not directly involve Japan or the US, Tokyo could see a major disruption in its energy supply. In a naval war, the Japanese home islands could potentially face temporary commercial blockade.

Consequences for Strategic Competition:

There is much work to be done in making US-Japanese cooperation tighter. Tokyo has made the fateful decision to backstop the rules-based world order with force and fight the growing power of China. The Japanese people will not be passive bystanders to the coming decades of geopolitical rivalry in Asia. Washington must think deeply and act intelligently to not burn this golden opportunity. It is unlikely that any other combination of powers will emerge that can ultimately prevail in a protracted conflict in the Pacific against Tokyo and Washington’s combined forces.

American diplomats and military officers need to understand Japan’s position, strengths, and weaknesses. In terms of national comprehensive strength, Tokyo will almost certainly be the US’ top ally by a long shot in the coming decades. Students inclined to studying languages should seriously consider learning Japanese. International businesses should think about reviewing US-Japan investments (including research and development) which are likely to be stable, enduring, and strategically significant. The academic and NGO sectors should also review and upgrade partnerships and programs, particularly in the national security field.