Vermilion China

Share this post

#15 - In Brief - Protests Rock the Mainland

www.vermilionchina.com

#15 - In Brief - Protests Rock the Mainland

抗议 - Kang4 Yi4 - Protest

Vermilion China
Nov 28, 2022
1
Share

Widespread, large-scale, anti-COVID policy, anti-party protests are testing the CCPs resolve and Xi Jinping’s place in the party as the paramount leader. These gatherings are likely the largest overt anti-CCP mainland protests since the 1989 country-wide protests whose focal point was Tiananmen (the present protests are not yet at 1989’s scale). Beijing’s response will be instructive as to the strength of Xi’s authority and the CCP’s ability to lock down society in future scenarios such as a Taiwan invasion.

Background: On Thursday (11/24) night, a deadly fire in Urumqi (the provincial capital of Xinjiang) killed at least 10 people and sparked widespread national outrage over covid restrictions. Vigils for the victims took place throughout the country  on Saturday and many of these transitioned into local anti-lockdown protests, with some erupting into political protests calling for Xi Jinping and the CCP to stand down.

Protests are common in China, but this event is unique because of the following points:

- The protests are widespread, taking place in Beijing, Shanghai, Wuhan, Chengdu, Nanjing, Guangzhou, Chongqing, Urumqi, and many other cities. 

- This is a large-scale event. In some cities protestors number less than 100, but in other places such as Beijing and Shanghai, numbers exceed 10,000.

- Protests initially shared a common anti-COVID policy theme. It is rare that protests in China target national issues, as most civil unrest seems to be related to local governance.

- The protests are quickly becoming anti-CCP. A growing number of protestors are directly challenging Beijing, calling for the CCP and Xi Jinping to step down.

- Information is going international. The CCP is normally excellent at domestic information control, but it has not been able to stem news of these protests from going outside of the county. This means that their response to these protests will be subject to international scrutiny.

The protests are ongoing as this article is being published. There are currently no indicators that they will stop. The initial response from the CCP was to obfuscate and shift blame to foreign forces. Foreign journalists have been arrested near protest sites (a key indicator that the regime feels threatened) while censors are busy removing information about the protests on the domestic internet. The police are arresting specific outspoken protestors and are patrolling city streets in force. This expanded police presence is searching citizens for protest related materials.

If unrest continues, a major next step for the CCP will be the decisive deployment of the People’s Armed Police (PAP) in major activity zones such as Shanghai. The PAP is purpose built to stamp out civil unrest through the use of force. If citizens must be physically dispersed, there will likely be a follow-on campaign of retribution against protestors and supporters. Think social credit score adjustments and surveillance targeting key influencers. 

Important questions going forward:

  • Will the protests continue into Monday and through the week? Is it important enough that citizens will miss work to attend protest activity?

  • What cities will the PAP be deployed in?

  • Which party and government officials will be forced to resign?

  • Does Xi triple down on his COVID policy after recently doubling down on it?

  • With Beijing’s attention likely turning almost fully inward, what key foreign policy issues are going to be neglected for roughly the next 6 months? Or more? 

  • Any mention of PLA preparation indicates the protests may be getting difficult to control. 

  • Ultimately, these events of momentary collapse in obedience to the authoritarians in Beijing are each potentially the seeds of fundamental change. Does this event force the CCP to focus more on domestic repression, funneling resources away from the military? Does it cause CCP members to lose some faith in Xi’s leadership? Is this a moment where Xi can maximize his public use of force to quash dissent and solidify the CCP’s rule into the next generation? Will this snowball into a mass movement like the 2019 Hong Kong protests and if so will the CCP be able to control events? We will all be paying close attention to how events unfold.

Pertinent Links:

Urumqi Fire

10 Killed in Fire in China’s Xinjiang - AP

Beijing Protests

Twitter avatar for @jielijian
界立建 @jielijian
北京四通橋聚集橋下高喊要自由,彭立發先生你用生命點燃了華夏神州遍地抗共狼煙,不要核酸要吃飯,不要改革要滅共,淚眼朦朧黎明即將來臨。
5:31 PM ∙ Nov 27, 2022
906Likes343Retweets

Wuhan Protests

Twitter avatar for @RFA_Chinese
自由亚洲电台 @RFA_Chinese
【中国至少十大城市爆发反政府示威】 【武汉人进入不眠夜】 过去几日,中国至少十个大城市出现大型反防疫示威,不少诉求从解封上升到政治改革层面,是1989年以来罕见。 在疫情爆发地武汉市,市民一直没有停下来,各大小居民区的民众都纷纷走到街上,到晚上,民众聚集在中山大道叫口号,整夜都不肯散去
4:17 PM ∙ Nov 27, 2022
8,913Likes2,654Retweets

Shanghai Protests

Twitter avatar for @dw_chinese
DW 中文- 德国之声 @dw_chinese
“习近平下台!” 在上海悼念乌鲁木齐火灾遇难者的现场,人们除了要求结束封控之外,还极为罕见地出现要求政府下台的激烈口号。
1:29 PM ∙ Nov 27, 2022
4,020Likes856Retweets
Twitter avatar for @fangshimin
方舟子 @fangshimin
上海人民继续在乌鲁木齐路抗议,警察、便衣密布,有人持花演讲被抓走,抗议人群高呼“放人”。
9:08 AM ∙ Nov 27, 2022
5,910Likes1,179Retweets

Example of Covid Lockdown

Twitter avatar for @Jam79922967
Petrichor @Jam79922967
这就是新疆烧死几十人的原因。这种事,只要习时代做得出来,秦始皇也做不出来的坏事。
Image
1:02 AM ∙ Nov 27, 2022
5,835Likes1,673Retweets

PAP Vehicles

Twitter avatar for @whyyoutouzhele
李老师不是你老师 @whyyoutouzhele
上海 补充视频 有网友拍摄到上海街头停靠有大量写着AU字样的白色防暴车。
8:04 PM ∙ Nov 27, 2022
5,859Likes1,188Retweets
1
Share
Top
New

No posts

Ready for more?

© 2023 Vermilion
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start WritingGet the app
Substack is the home for great writing